Data Sources & Methodology — How the Delusion Calculator Works

Use the calculators: Male Delusion Calculator | Female Delusion Calculator | US Dating Statistics

Delusion Calculator — Data Sources & Methodology

The Male Delusion Calculator and Female Delusion Calculator on DelusionCalc.com use a multiplicative probability model applied to authoritative US government datasets. This page documents every data source, every statistical assumption, and the exact math behind every percentage shown.

How the Calculator Works: The Multiplicative Model

Each preference you enter acts as an independent filter on the US adult population. The probability that any randomly selected person meets all your criteria simultaneously is the product (multiplication) of each individual probability.

Formula: P(all criteria) = P(age) × P(height) × P(weight) × P(income) × P(race) × P(education) × P(not married) × P(not obese)

This is a standard joint probability calculation assuming independence between filters. While some variables are mildly correlated in reality (e.g., education and income), the independent assumption produces a conservative estimate that is widely accepted in population filtering models.

Primary Data Sources

US Census Bureau — American Community Survey (ACS)

The US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey is an ongoing annual survey of approximately 3.5 million households. We use ACS data for:

  • Total US adult female population: approximately 170 million women age 18 and older
  • Total US adult male population: approximately 165 million men age 18 and older
  • Race/ethnicity distribution: White non-Hispanic (57.6%), Black/African American (13.4%), Hispanic/Latino (18.8%), Asian (6.3%), Middle Eastern (2.0%), South Asian (1.5%), Mixed/Other (3.0%)
  • Educational attainment: High school diploma or equivalent (91%), Bachelor’s degree or higher (39%), Master’s degree or higher (16%), Doctoral degree (4%)
  • Marital status: Approximately 48% of US women age 18+ are not currently married (single, divorced, widowed, or never married)
  • Income distribution: Household and individual income percentile data by age and sex
  • Age distribution: 18–24 (12%), 25–34 (17%), 35–44 (16%), 45–54 (16%), 55–65 (18%) as a share of the 18–65 adult female population

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (most recent available: 2022–2023). Published at census.gov.

CDC National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)

The CDC’s NHANES program conducts physical examinations of a nationally representative sample of approximately 5,000 Americans per year. Measurements are taken by trained medical staff — not self-reported. We use NHANES data for:

  • Height distribution (women): Mean height 5’4″ (163 cm). Percentile table used for filtering — e.g., 5’6″ (168 cm) = top 20% of women by height; 5’8″ (173 cm) = top 6%; 5’10” (178 cm) = top 1.5%
  • Height distribution (men): Mean height 5’9″ (175 cm). 6’0″ (183 cm) = top 14.5% of men; 6’2″ (188 cm) = top 4%
  • Weight distribution (women): Mean weight 170.8 lbs (77.5 kg). BMI and weight percentile curves used for filtering
  • Weight distribution (men): Mean weight 199.8 lbs (90.6 kg)
  • Obesity prevalence (women): 41.9% of US adult women have obesity (BMI ≥ 30), meaning approximately 58% are non-obese
  • Obesity prevalence (men): 43.0% of US adult men have obesity, meaning approximately 57% are non-obese

Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics, NHANES 2017–2020 (most recent complete cycle). Published at cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — Income Data

Income filtering uses Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey and Census ACS income tables. Key reference points:

  • Median individual income for full-time workers (women): approximately $52,000/year
  • Median individual income for full-time workers (men): approximately $62,000/year
  • $75,000+ income: approximately 19% of US adults
  • $100,000+ income: approximately 11% of US adults

Worked Example: Female Delusion Calculator

A woman who wants a man who is: age 25–35, at least 6 feet tall, earns $75,000+, is not obese, and is not married would see this calculation:

  • Age 25–35 (from 18–65 pool): 17% → 0.17
  • Height ≥ 6’0″ (183 cm): 14.5% per NHANES → 0.145
  • Income ≥ $75,000: 19% per BLS/ACS → 0.19
  • Not obese: 57% per NHANES → 0.57
  • Not married: 48% per Census → 0.48

Result: 0.17 × 0.145 × 0.19 × 0.57 × 0.48 = 0.00128 = 0.13%

Out of approximately 165 million US men, roughly 211,000 men meet all five of those criteria simultaneously.

Limitations and Caveats

The calculator provides statistical estimates based on population averages — not predictions about any individual. Several limitations apply:

  • Independence assumption: The model treats each filter as statistically independent. In reality, height and income are mildly positively correlated (taller men earn slightly more on average). This means our estimates may slightly understate the true percentage for some combinations.
  • Geographic variation: National averages mask large regional differences. Urban areas (especially NYC, LA, SF) have more highly educated, higher-income adults than rural areas. Dating pool composition in a specific city will differ from the national average.
  • Dating pool ≠ total population: The calculator uses the full US adult population. Your actual dating pool (people who are single, in your area, and using the same dating platforms) is smaller.
  • Data currency: Census and NHANES data are updated every 1–5 years. The calculator uses the most recently available public datasets.

Frequently Asked Questions About Our Data

What percentage of men in the US are 6 feet tall or taller?

According to CDC NHANES data, approximately 14.5% of American men are 6 feet (183 cm) or taller. This means roughly 85.5% of men are shorter than 6 feet. The mean height for US adult men is approximately 5’9″ (175.3 cm).

How many American women are not obese?

According to CDC NHANES 2017–2020, 41.9% of US adult women have obesity (defined as BMI ≥ 30). This means approximately 58.1% of American women are not obese. The average American woman has a BMI of approximately 29.6 and weighs 170.8 pounds (77.5 kg).

What percentage of American men earn over $100,000 a year?

According to US Census Bureau ACS data, approximately 11% of US adult individuals earn $100,000 or more annually. Among full-time, year-round male workers specifically, approximately 26% earn $100,000 or more. The median earnings for full-time male workers is approximately $62,000/year.

What percentage of Americans have a bachelor’s degree?

According to the US Census Bureau, approximately 39% of US adults age 25 and older hold at least a bachelor’s degree. Approximately 16% hold a master’s degree or higher, and approximately 4% hold a doctoral or professional degree.

Why do the percentages drop so fast when I add more filters?

This is the mathematical reality of combinatorial filtering. Even if each individual preference is “reasonable” — say, each one filters out only 50% of the population — stacking five such preferences leaves you with 0.5⁵ = 3.125%. This is not a flaw in the calculator; it reflects how joint probabilities work in real populations. The same math applies to any product search with multiple filters.

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